Showing posts with label risk control. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk control. Show all posts

Trading Risk: Enhanced Profitability through Risk Control Review

Trading Risk: Enhanced Profitability through Risk Control
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In his book Trading Risk, Ken Grant draws upon his experience as a risk manager for Tudor Investments and SAC Capital to create an insightful and surprisingly non-technical guide for traders and portfolio managers. As Director of Trader Development at a large proprietary trading house, I have been impressed with the role risk management plays in the success of the firm and its individual traders. Moreover, this is a scalable difference: risk management very much impacts the outcomes of individual trades, results of trading days, and performance across entire quarters. Where I believe Grant has admirably succeeded is in documenting that risk management is much more than simply "cutting your losses". Trading Risk systematically breaks down elements of the process of managing trades, from the establishment of concrete objectives to the allocation of risk capital to specific trades and the use of correlation analysis in evaluating trading results. His discussions of adjusting portfolio exposure and evaluating the risk components of individual trades are highly practical and encourage a rigor of self-analysis that is rarely practiced.
Perhaps an example from my own work with traders that overlaps Grant's ideas might be illustrative. I encourage traders to keep a log of all their trades that tracks time of day, position taken, position size, holding period, and profit/loss (P/L). Changes to the position are also documented, as traders scale into or out of trades. From this record, we can evaluate a host of performance statistics, such as position sizing as a function of market volume/volatility, the correlation of profitability with trade size/holding period, and patterns of activity within the trading day. While Grant's background is with portfolio management-appropriate to a manager who is holding a basket of positions in a variety of equities-his ideas are easily adaptable to the intraday trader who is trading a single instrument. By viewing each trade during a day as an element of that day's "portfolio", we can ask important questions about the mix of position sizes, overall directional bias, and the management of volatility as a function of trade capital/loss limits.
Written in an engaging style with bits of humor interspersed, Trading Risk ends with a practical chapter that summarizes the book's major points. He explains the importance of developing and modifying trading plans, defining one's trading "edge", judiciously allocating risk capital, and improving performance "at the margin". This latter point is a particularly neglected element in risk management. For the active, large trader, the ability to squeeze the extra tick out of trades is frequently the difference between a winning day and a losing one. Superior traders have an ability to read the very short-term patterns of price change and momentum to determine when it is prudent to hit the bid or let the market go offer in exiting a position. At such points, good risk management and good trading are indistinguishable.
I have few reservations about Grant's book. A text of 250 pages is not going to provide many workbook-like examples, something that would help the more mathematically challenged master the ideas of value-at-risk and correlation analysis. Small retail traders who trade only occasionally will probably find the risk metrics less compelling than larger, active traders or portfolio managers, though the basic principles emphasized in the last chapter certainly apply to any serious trader. Considering the absence of serious discussions of risk management in the popular trading literature, Trading Risk is a major contribution and a worthy addition to a library. I plan to use it as a core reading in our training program for new traders, perhaps the best endorsement I can give.


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Revolutionary techniques that traders can implement to improve profits and avoid losses
No trader, professional or individual, can afford not to have a solid risk management program integrated into his or her trading system. But finding a precise mathematical model to replace subjective decision-making processes is a challenge. Traditionally, risk management has focused solely on loss avoidance, but in Trading Risk, hedge fund risk manager Kenneth Grant presents some-thing completely new—how to manage a portfolio to minimize risk and increase profits by putting more capital at risk. Trading Risk details a risk management program that can help both money managers and individual traders evaluate which elements in a portfolio are working efficiently and which aren't. By illustrating an extremely simple set of statistical and arithmetic tools this book can help readers enhance their performance in many financial markets.
Kenneth L.Grant is Cheyne's Global Risk Manager, and is the Managing Member for Cheyne Capital, LLC, the firm's U.S. arm. Mr. Grant is a pioneer in the field of hedge fund risk management and capital allocation. Before joining Cheyne, he created risk control programs at two of the world's leading hedge funds, Tudor Investments and SAC Capital, where he was eventually promoted to the title of Chief Investment Strategist. Mr. Grant holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin, an MA in Economics from Columbia University, and an MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.

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Better Stock Trading: Money and Risk Management Review

Better Stock Trading: Money and Risk Management
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The book really starts out examining how risk management can affect a system with positive expectations. The main point he is making is that your average profit should be greater than average loss, which is true enough. Unfortunately, there is an implied assumption in this section that suggests you can change the stop without impacting the probabilities of success -- i've found this not to be true in my own trading. I would certainly liked to have seen some mention of this in the book, but that's a bit of a nitpick to be quite honest.
In the book, Mr. Guppy uses the 2% risk model Elder uses. However, there are bits missing. For example, he has no real way of limiting risk. He has a model whereby through diversification and position limits, he will limit outstanding risk to 20%. However, from my brief reading of the book (I plan to go over it more thoroughly later), there is nothing stopping you from entering another 20% worth of positions, and another 20%. Stopping your entire portfolio out several times. Sure, I hear you say, this could never happen to a top trader -- however, if it happened to Steve Walton , I suspect it can happen to you.
Overall, I think this is an excellent book, and I learned quite a bit from it. Mr. Guppy's writing style may not be quite as polished as some writers, but I think it's still quite good. If you are a position trader, i'd highly recommend this book -- if you opt for the swing or daytrading timeframes, I think you might be better off with Elder or Tharp -- although it certainly does no harm to study all of these authors, as they each have a lot of really good things to say about this topic. I think this book may indeed be destined to be in fine company, alongside Elder and Tharp. This work is much stronger and generally more useful than his earlier work, Market Trading Tactics.

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An in-depth examination of money management methods for consistent trading successIn Better Stock Trading, Daryl Guppy shows readers how to improve returns by using good money management technique???not by increasing risk in trying to win more trades. Readers will learn how to level the market playing field by using the best money management strategies for their particular account size. From the straightforward two percent rule, to pyramiding methods, and overall portfolio management, Guppy presents a selection of strategies, which will allow any independent trader to capitalize on a rising market and protect funds when the bear takes over. He also shows readers how to study their own trading history and use this information to improve their trading future. Trading skill counts, but money management gives independent traders the edge. Daryl Guppy (Australia) is an experienced and highly successful private trader. A member of IFTA and the Australian Technical Analyst's Association, he is a popular speaker at international trading seminars in Australia and the Asia Pacific region. He is the author of five highly successful trading titles, including Market Trading Tactics (0-471-84663-5), and is the Editorial Director of The Investors' International Bookshelf.

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The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (Wiley Trading) Review

The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (Wiley Trading)
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The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (Wiley Trading)
This is my first Amazon.com review, and with excellent reason -- Dr. Steenbarger's latest book is his best yet!
Wall Street is the only place on earth where an expert and a novice have a 50-50 chance of winning. This is the human fascination with speculation.
Dr. Steenbarger's book provides 101 lessons every rookie and professional trader should---thanks to this book---be familiar with. Like his previous books, The Daily Trading Coach provides little jewels to improve your viewpoint from amateur trader to professional trader.
Compared to Van Tharp's books, Dr. Steenbarger takes an entirely different approach. Where Van Tharp focues on Position Sizing and Positive Expectancy systems, Dr. Steenbarger focuses on proper self-monitoring and self-coaching tips to improve performance over the daily uncertainty of Wall Street.
Combining Van Tharp & Brett Steenbarger's lessons, below are some commonly misunderstood facts of financial speculation:
1) It's not by making large profits that money is made over time. It's by consistently keeping losses small in relation to profits.
2) Making Money and Being Right are at opposite ends of the performance spectrum, and --- very surprisingly to most --- most professional traders admit their primary job is to minimize losses, NOT focus on being right. Why? Minizing losses (well over 50% of the time losses can't be avoided) ensures their average winner will be greater in relation to the average loser.
3) No one knows FOR SURE how much profit any trade is likely to make. Fortunately, it is possible to know THE INITIAL RISK a trader is willing to lose.
4) Projection of future prices are only a BEST GUESS, never a 100% certainty.
5) Top traders only control three things all the time: Initial Risk, Exits, and EMOTIONS...
Most professional traders keep emotions in check, and most admit that an emotional trader is a Dangerous Trader. I'm happily surprised to find Dr. Steenbarger support a different view.
Dr. Steenbarger uses research to argue that emotions can become a trader's best friend by fueling the drive to sustain change and modify a trader's behavior to enhance trading performance. Learning this is worth 1000x the price of the price of the book! Why? Because humans are naturally wired to act on emotions, and the human mind is the most complex to understand because emotions drive its actions unpredictably. Over 75% of the Daily Trading Coach is focused on harnessing the psychology of emotions to propel performance
It is said that Wall Street is the most expensive place to find yourself. Although this will always be the case, The Daily Trading Coach will certainly help reduce the cost of such an expensive lesson.
My faith is stronger than your doubt,
Federico Tewes

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Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Lessons Every Trader Must Master Review

Trading Rules that Work: The 28 Lessons Every Trader Must Master
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The author, a 20-year trader and market analyst, provides 28 concrete trading rules in this 192-page book that will aid the newbie or experienced futures and FX trader control their inner self when trading. It is also useful for traders of equities and other investment vehicles.
According to the author there are three keys to successful trading:
1. A trader understands their his own psychology
2. A trader masters the psychology of his personal trading rules, and
3. A trader understands and masters the market's psychology
The book is equally divided into four parts: getting in the game, cutting losses, letting profits run, and trader maxims. Jankovsky devotes one chapter to each of the 28 rules. A number of the rules are well known such as have a trading plan, cut losses and let profits run, don't overtrade, and never add to a loser. Others are not as well known such as keep good records and review them, don't second-guess your winners, and all markets are bearish.
In all cases, the author provides excellent insights, a thorough discussion, and good advice on how to implement each rule. Jankovsky notes that traders who consistently make money have a trading plan with specific rules, while losing traders typically have no plan. He believes that it is critical for the trader to keep accurate and comprehensive records of all trades, especially recording what you were feeling and thinking while making the trade.
The author suggests that those interested in trading read books by great traders and focus on how they think and leverage their experience into your own. Also provided is a list of recommended reading, which includes eighteen books focusing on psychology, contrary thinking, and crowd behavior. It is important how a trader creates the market in his/her head, since trading success will depend upon how you see and interpret the market's input.
The book has only a few tables and charts. Unfortunately, a few of the charts are only one-third of a page in size, and the small-boxed comments are hard to read. Half-page charts would have been clearer.
In summary, anyone considering trading for a living, whether using futures or equities, can glean very useful, practical and implemental trading rules that will provide a basis for trading success. This book is a welcome addition to the field. As the author of Day Trading on the Edge: A Look-Before-You-Leap-Guide to Investing published in November 2000, and a voracious reader of over 500 trading and investing books, I found Jankovsky's book easy-to-read and very worthwhile.


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Money Management Strategies for Futures Traders (Wiley Finance) Review

Money Management Strategies for Futures Traders (Wiley Finance)
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This book was released in 1992 -- and is still as essential today to traders as it was 16 years ago. It seems like it is a secret gem of a book since there are only 2 Amazon.com reviews posted (both of which are five and four stars) in all these years.
Maybe it's time for this classic to be re-discovered by a new generation of traders and investors. Surprising to me that the book "The Trading Game - Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions" sells so many books. The gimmick title "...Make Millions..." should make you wonder if it is authentic -- get Professor Balsara's book instead and learn the true principles of managing and understanding your risk.
There is a reason Balsara's book is cited by 34 other books (most of which are written by the master traders of our time) and it is because this is the textbook that the master traders refer to in creating their money management strategies. This book has the formulas and the theory you need to manage your risk and avoid the risk-of-ruin.
I found out about Balsara's book from Bennett McDowell, he recommends Balsara's book in his book "A Trader's Money Management System":
A Trader's Money Management System: How to Ensure Profit and Avoid the Risk of Ruin (Wiley Trading)
McDowell encourages his students to use Balsara's risk-of-ruin tables when designing their own personal money management system. It improves your bottom line when you calculate your current payoff ratio and win ratio and accurately determine the risk you should be taking on each trade by referring to the risk-of-ruin tables. Balsara also covers Optimal F in detail, which is another way to determine the amount to risk on any one trade based on your current payoff ratio and win ratio.
Of course, another great author on this topic is Ralph Vince and his latest book is probably the most thorough account of using Optimal F effectivly:
The Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics: Formulas for Optimal Allocation & Leverage (Wiley Trading)
For some traders they should risk 2% of their trading capital on each trade. For other more experienced traders they can benefit by risking 10%. The key is to do the calculations and know where you stand at any given moment.
Do yourself a favor, buy Balsara's book, Vince's book and/or McDowell's book instead of "The Trading Game".

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A Trader's Money Management System: How to Ensure Profit and Avoid the Risk of Ruin (Wiley Trading) Review

A Trader's Money Management System: How to Ensure Profit and Avoid the Risk of Ruin (Wiley Trading)
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Thank you to John T. Morris for buying "A Trader's Money Management System" book and for reading it. And, though his review was less than glowing, I appreciate his comments here on Amazon.com because it opens up a valuable dialogue for traders about "effective" money management.
In response to his comments, let's just say I'm the first to admire the work of Douglas, Elder and Tharp -- and encourage anyone not familiar with their work to study them. My concern for Morris is that he makes no mention of Nauzer Balsara or Ralph Vince -- arguably the two greatest mathematicians in the field of trading. These men are mentioned in my book because their timeless concepts (both wrote books over 15 years ago) are the basis for truly "effective" money management.
With that said, many will agree that Balsara and Vince, while they are pure genius, can be at times difficult to comprehend for the new trader -- and even for some very seasoned traders. What "A Trader's Money Management System" does for the reader, is to make some of these complex concepts -- like using the risk-of-ruin tables and optimal f formulas -- easy to understand and instantly implement.
Apparently my simplicity in the book has worked since Morris says in his review that "...I do give this book two stars rather than one because it does contain some ideas that I have never run across before in my study of trading: The Risk of Ruin concept plus optimal percentage formula to determine the amount of equity capital to be risked on any one trade...".
If he has gained that insight from the book, then he is one step closer to developing more "effective" money management. The next big step for him would be to realize that there is no "magic percent" to risk on each trade. The 2% figure is purely an example and a frame of reference for the reader and that is why there is an "Important Note" stated when ever the 2% figure is mentioned. The important note directs the reader to Chapter 9 so that they can use the risk of ruin tables and optimal f formulas to calculate the exact amount that should be risked on each trade.
When Morris states that "...except in very exceptional cases, 2% is way too much to risk on a trade and that it should be more like half at most..." he is not basing his analysis on any mathematical probabilities. Instead, it's more of a hunch, since he's taking numbers out of a hat from interviews in the Market Wizards book. He doesn't know what the pay off ratios or win ratios for the traders interviewed were.
By looking at page number 79 in "A Trader's Money Management System" you'll see that my recommendation for a trader producing a win ratio of 35% (meaning you are winning only 35% of your trades) and a payoff ratio of 2 to 1 (meaning for every dollar you lose you earn 2 dollars) -- they should be risking only 1% . Where as on the same page of the book you'll see that if you have a win ratio of 50% and a payoff ratio of 3 to 1 you would in fact be able to risk 10%.
Why can one trader risk only 1% and another risk as much as 10%? It is simple, from a mathematical probability, their historical performance warrants -- less risk -- OR -- more risk -- depending on how well they trade.
I've been working with traders for over ten years and have to say that my passion is trading and education. Hopefully this response to John T. Morris will give other traders, if not Morris himself, some insight into effective ways to structure their risk -- depending on what their current trading results are telling them through their win ratio and payoff ratio.


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