Showing posts with label fundamental analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fundamental analysis. Show all posts

Leo Melamed: Escape to the Futures Review

Leo Melamed: Escape to the Futures
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Commodity Futures have been called "The Last Great Frontier of Capitalism". A characteristic of frontiers is that they produce interesting people. But while we know a good deal about the interesting people in other industries - Bill Gates in software, for example, or Peter Drucker in management consulting - until recently the public has heard little of the human side of the futures business.
A few years ago a remarkable book was published by the options trader Jack Ritchie called God in the Pits - Confessions of a Commodities Trader. The book had much to say about author's spiritual journey and little about the financial markets in Chicago, but he described his motivation for writing the book as follows: "...the common stereotype is that integrity and commodities trading go together like Al Capone and Mother Teresa. While they are seldom accurate, neither are common sterotypes completely erroneous".
Escape to the Futures goes a long way towards dispelling that stereotype, and therefore is a most overdue book. It is the memoirs of Leo Melamed, a former Chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (known in the commodities world as simply "the Merc") and one of the more important figures in the Chicago financial markets. As well as being better known than Ritchie, Melamed has more to say about his industry. One comes away from the book with an impression of the heroic qualities of the markets as well as an appreciation for the pioneering men who made this new frontier possible. The book's title refers to Melamed's origins. Like that other well known investment figure, George Soros, Melamed is of European Jewish extraction - he was born in Poland. His family managed to escape the Holocaust by fleeing, first to Lithuania, then, barely escaping the Nazi occupation of that country, emigrating to the United States via Japan (pre Pearl Harbour) after a long train ride across the Soviet Union. The twists and turns of this exciting story hints at the origins of Melamed's succ! ess. As Soros has said, describing his experience in the Budapest of 1944: "I learned the art of survival...that has had a certain relevance to my investment career"
Like many careers prior to the arrival of post-industrial society, Melamed's began by accident - he answered an advertisement for a "runner" for what he presumed was a law firm but was in fact a member firm of the Merc. He quickly fell in love with the market: " I was enthralled with the open outcry system of buying and selling contracts, with the speed at which things happened, with the colorful players in this arena of capitalistic hope and sweat." (p.88). This appreciation of what Keynes called the "animal spirits" of capitalism seems to be decidedly lacking these days. In the 1990s, if one want's to be a "player" in the financial markets, the correct route seems to be via a bachelor's degree in business followed by some high-priced graduate study, an MBA or something. Contrast this with the advice the young Jimmy Rogers got in the 1960s: "Go short some beans and you'll learn more in just one trade than you would in two years at `B-School.' "
Now, reading Escape to the Futures will not give you many trading "tips". Great traders are not going to give away their secrets like that. What it will give you an insight into is how an industry gets built. Melamend himself illustrates the phenomenal growth of the futures business in his preface to the book: "In 1971...14.6 million contracts traded on US futures exchanges. Twenty years later, in 1991, the total transactions of futures and options on US futures exchanges was 325 million contracts." How did it happen? Your average B-School guy would attribute the growth to the US dollar de-valuations of 1971 and 1973, to the commodity price booms of the 1970s, and the financial de-regulations of the 1980s. What he is missing is the role played by men like Melamed who had a vision about what they wanted to achieve with thei! r organisations. Reading his book one is struck by how his working days were more those of a politician rather than a trader.
But I use the word politician to mean "statesman", or "leader". One characteristic of such men is vision. Look, for example, at the Merc's International Monetary Market, the futures market for currencies: "Of one thing I was certain by the mid-1970s: agriculture was never going to be the future. But finance was. If the Chicago Mercentile Exchange had any future, it was on the back of the International Monetary Market. But that was something I couldn't prove in 1975 because the currencies and financial futures still had a long way to go. One had to believe" (p. 242).
One of the downsides of financial statesmanship is that you don't get to concentrate as much on making money yourself. For instance, Melamed would show delegations of visitors to the Merc how a trade was executed, but the trade lose money! It is no surprise to learn, at the end of the book, that Melamed is now concentrating more of his efforts these days on building up his own firm, Sakura Dellsher.
In Melamed we get a picture of a man who allied vision with an ability to persuade people of the virtue of his ideas, who knew how to cultivate relationships with people, and who knew how to effectively use his time and resources to achieve his organisation's goals. I commend this book to everyone interested in capitalism as people and not as abstract concepts as taught in the textbooks. Like another great book written by a trader but not about trading - Bernard Baruch's My Own Story - you will get an idea of how one man made things happen..

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Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language (3rd Edition) Review

Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language (3rd Edition)
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This book is a good beginner's guide to technical analysis. The author touches on many aspects of technical analysis but doesn't go as deeply as Pring or Murphy. As an example, the author explains Elliot Waves in 4 pages, and there are 3 diagrams in those pages.
The book is 300 pages, but it's also 37 chapters. The chapter heading takes about a third of the page, there are breaks between subjects, there are a lot of charts, and not all the pages are filled completely top to bottom. There is less than you think. Take away the large headings, the subject breaks, the charts, fill up the pages completely and this book is probably only 150 pages to explain 37 chapters of material, which is barely enough to scratch the surface, which is what a beginner's book should contain.
One thing I like is that the author uses REAL LIFE examples. One thing I don't like is that while the author does a decent job of explaining the patterns, he doesn't show how to use those patterns as entry or exit points to help you make some $$$.
Overall, an average book at a good price if you want to learn technical analysis, but not trading. But if you want a GREAT book at a good price instead of just an average book, do yourself a favor and invest an extra $10 and buy "How Technical Analysis Works" by Bruce Kamich.

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Trading Rules II: More Strategies for Success Review

Trading Rules II: More Strategies for Success
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The original Trading Rules gave me a bible of rules to use when looking at markets. This one goes one step further by offering even more insight into market strategies employed by the market insiders. Eng's explanation of stock splits as a form of revisionist history shows how the big boys really use stock splits to rewrite their original costs ... and screw the public ... is an insightful chapter. Eng's use of arbitrage clearly explains how I can use it outside of the markets! Other chapters are just as valuable to making money. In fact, no other book has portrayed the game played against the public as this one book by Eng. Eng's twenty years of market experience certainly shows up here. This is for today what Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was to investors and traders of the 1920s

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Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Essentials Series) Review

Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Essentials Series)
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I have spent 20 years researching and trading stocks and bonds, and was interested in currency trading. I purchased a number of books on foreign exchange. I read this book first, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading, and I found it an excellent choice. It has also been a good companion to my experimentation and trading on one of the major FX trading websites.
It starts off with a good introduction to the principles of currency trading and includes a discussion of a wide range of trading approaches to help understand which best fit your personality and style. The chapters that dive in on technical analysis (using candlesticks, moving averages, fibonacci/pivot point, elliott wave) are especially good; it is obviously the author's specialty. That was good for me since my background is in fundamental analysis and the author's treatment of technical analysis was comprehensive and helpful. The sections on fundamental analyses were good too, although I went through them quickly given my familiarity. My primary focus was to "expand the toolbox" with technical analyses and this book served that goal. Also, importantly, the book is written in an entertaining and fluid style. It was easy to read and absorb.
Overall, I found the book excellent and recommend it.

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Strategic Stock Trading: Master Personal Finance Using Wallstreetwindow Stock Investing Strategies With Stock Market Technical Analysis Review

Strategic Stock Trading: Master Personal Finance Using Wallstreetwindow Stock Investing Strategies With Stock Market Technical Analysis
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While reading Strategic Stock Trading, I was able to use some of the techniques from the book to "read" stock charts better and to make some better trades that resulted in profits. I was also able to close some positions which would have resulted in losses if I had held them any longer. I have been trading options since 2003. I quadrupled my trading account, then watched like a deer caught in the headlights, while my account had a 50% draw down from late 2007 thru early 2009. In the last six months I have inched my way up to about 75% of my top rung. Through self discipline, I have learned to shorten the holding time that I am in a position and have learned to liquidate positions which are starting to look like they want to take a vacation in the sun (head south).
While reading Strategic Stock Trading, I realized that by looking at stock charts with a different perspective, like Michael Swanson shows you how to do, trading can be so much easier. Michael shows how to step back and look at the overall life cycle of a sector of the stock market and the life cycle of an individual stock, to see which of the four stages of the life cycle they are in. Strategic Stock Trading shows how to see the trend that a stock is in, even though it may be oscillating up and down and not giving a clear trend in the short term. This oscillating within a range may happen just before the stock breaks out, up or down, depending on which part of the life cycle the stock is at.
With thousands of stocks to chose from to trade, how does a person know what to trade to make a profit? The media is full of brilliant ideas and suggestions. When you understand how to look at the life cycle of a stock and use some basic charting techniques, it is easy to see whether or not to take a position on a brilliant idea or suggestion, or whether to be in cash, ready to take advantage of the next direction a stock is going to take. It's not about being able to read Candlesticks, Fibonacci Retracements, Elliot Waves, Head and Shoulder and other patterns. It's being able to understand the psychology of other traders (including professional traders). This is what Michael Swanson is getting at in his book Strategic Stock Trading. Yes, it is a short book and it can be read in one sitting, if you like, but the basic concepts may take you by surprise. It may adjust your thinking a bit and you may become profitably happy from that adjustment. It happened to me and I am looking forward to a happy trading future - regardless of which way the market trends.

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Many say few know more about stock trading than Michael Swanson, who ran a top ranked hedge fund for four years and has built up a huge audience of readers on his website WallStreetWindow.com thanks to the accuracy of his market calls and investment acumen, including making over 50% in 2008 in one of the worst years for the stock market ever. His book Strategic Stock Trading demystifies the stock market by explaining what truly makes the stock market and individual stocks move the way they do and shows you how you can take advantage of it. The book explains the principles required for you to become an elite trader in the stock market, including what and when to buy and sell using the Two Fold Formula, how to manage risk, and how to be able to foresee real changes in the overall trend of the market before the crowd does. There are many investment books that describe aspects of technical and fundamental analysis. This one puts them together and shows you have to really use them in a strategic way backed by real life experiences and examples. It also discusses the psychology of investors in the market and how hedge funds and institutional investors now influence the stock market more than ever before and what the individual investor must do in this type of market to succeed.

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TripleScreenMethod.com Trader's Corner Review

TripleScreenMethod.com Trader's Corner
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Since you can't see inside this book, I thought I would tell you about it, as I'm the author. First, I'm a professional statistician who became interested in the stock market. I had some money and wanted to deploy it myself rather than turn it over to someone else. Too, I felt I was good with data (and charts) and could use my statistical background to interpret market patterns.
After time spent losing money on conventional approaches, I developed my "triplescreenmethod" approach. It's a strategy using three types of screens: fundamentals, earnings revision fuel and value. In total, 16 screens (each a member of one of the three categories) are run each weekend and used to identify the ~70 stocks that are the best of the best: great fundamentals, positive earnings revision fuel and still value left at the current price. These stocks are then traded on pullbacks over the next week. Now, over 22 quarters later, 1500 trades have been forecast (average 6 day holding period) that generated a 1075% return while the S&P has lost -23%. If one started with $35,000, it would have grown to more than $411,000. While I'm a short-term trader by nature, the stocks identified using the TSM strategy are still the ones one would want to hold for the longer term.
This is the third book in the TripleScreenMethod series. It's a compilation of 59 articles that address various aspects of trading/investing in the stock market.
Here's a breakdown of the subjects covered:
+ Macro-economic picture (7 articles)
+ Market health - cycles in the market (5 articles)
+ Measures of market health (7 articles)
+ Sector specific issues (9 articles)
+ Stock valuation and trade management tools (6 articles)
+ Trader's edge - price patterns (7 articles)
+ Trader's edge - pullbacks and gaps (9 articles)
+ Shorting stocks - a visit to the dark side (5 articles)
+ Option strategies for TSM traders (3 articles)
+ Trading intra-day (1 article)

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The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders Review

The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders
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Along with its prequel, "The New Market Wizards" is not just a book featuring top traders and their killer strategies that brought about their raging success. The two are no less self-help books giving the much needed pointers to anyone who wants to become a better trader as it repeatedly dissects what constitutes fatal emotional pitfalls and helps readers achieve an acute state of naked realization and, perhaps taken to the extreme, self-actualization. This observation is best captured in Jack Schwager's closing interview with Dr. Van K. Tharp in "Market Wizards": "When people approach the markets, they bring their personal problems with them".
For fundamentalists, "Market Wizards" is the more appropriate book to peruse. My favorite section in the book is "A Little Bit of Everything" where views of long-term investors are discussed at length. The longest write-ups in part one of the series, perhaps purposely so, are also the most useful as interviewees proffered their tricks of their trades with great candor - Michael Marcus (42 pages), James Rogers (38), Bruce Kovner (34), Michael Steinhardt (26). Other concise but equally useful comments were aired by David Ryan (20 - and check out the wealth of investment/trading books mentioned in the interview) and William O'Neill (18).
"The New Market Wizards" is in broad terms a general rehash of ideas propounded in the first book, except that it was more geared toward trading styles than investment techniques, plus the myriad traders highlighted were newer to the game at the penning of the book and in this sense their views less impressive/thought-provoking compared to its prequel where the most legendary / creme de la creme were handpicked to go into the definitive book. Consequently, I find myself picking up appreciably less useful ideas from the second book than I did from the first, albeit Jeff Yass's "The Mathematics Of Strategy" was a refreshing read.
As a summary of Schwager's two extraordinary books on top traders, here's my take on the most important elements that contribute to trading success:
(1) Stringent Risk Control
(2) Hard Work & Tenacity
(3) Know Thyself: Identifying Areas Of Competence & Weakness
(4) Know Thy Investment As Crap Begets Crap
(5) Open-mindedness To New Ideas & Unexplored Angles
(6) Willingness To Acknowledge Defeat & Change Tack When Proven Wrong
(7) Resilience, Courage & Conviction When Markets Go Against You In The Short-Term
(8) Humility To Accept That 'The Market Is Always Right'
(9) Patience To Let Profit Run But Resolution To Run When Proven Wrong
(10) Discipline: Setting Exit & Entry Points/Targets
(11) Defensive/Offensive Behavior: 'Preserving Equity First, Making Money Second'
(12) Fire To Succeed: Total Involvement, Not Haphazard Approach
As a humble contribution, I would like to add two cents as to what defines sound trading mindset:
(a) Investment Is Counter-Intuitive: Obvious Bets Rarely Make Good Investments and vice versa.
(b) On-Going Process Of Analysis & Lateral Thinking: Importance of Leaving No Stones Unturned.
(c) Generosity of Spirit: The More That Is Given To You, The More Is Expected Of You. The common thread that reverberated throughout the books was the interviewees' generosity in sharing their secrets of success and their philanthropic works, along the lines of what George Soros is striving to achieve through his many charitable foundations and for Eastern Europe. While we are very far away from the ideal world where markets are efficient and economic allocations optimal, it is my belief that the more the public is being educated about the proper workings of the markets, the more stable they will be, and this will work for the good of the capital markets and benefit the financial/corporate world in time to come.
All said, these books are a must-read for anyone wishing to hone their skills as traders/investors and derive the positive spill-over of conquering the emotional skeletons in their closets which barred many from leading a more fulfilling life, trading/investing or otherwise. The market is a very sobering place to be where sentimentalism is shunned and those resting on their laurels will be quickly eliminated. Taking the quote from investment maestro, Michael Steinhardt, "...there is no real pattern: anyone who thinks he can formulate success in this racket is deluding himself because it changes too quickly". The resounding cardinal rules and techniques repeated by the top traders ad nauseam in these books are bound to take shape in your investment psyche and stand your future trading and investment processes in good stead.
I only wish I had read the books earlier.

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