Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label keynes. Show all posts

Paving Wall Street : Experimental Economics and the Quest for the Perfect Market Review

Paving Wall Street : Experimental Economics and the Quest for the Perfect Market
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Miller provides in-depth insight into past financial market events and by doing so sheds light on what might happen today on several fronts. Three examples: His discussion of the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management debacle is relevant for understanding current risks in hedge funds. His analysis of 1980s portfolio insurance should add to concerns about the proliferation of capital guaranteed notes. His take on market circuit breakers, which he describes as regulatory folly, raises the question of what would happen today if these were triggered.
While the book reviews a large and varied body of academic research, focusing heavily on the experimental economics that the author subscribes to, it offers practical conclusions that anybody interested in finance will find worthwhile. As a financial journalist, I found it very useful.
However, because it covers a lot of ground, readers may want to pick and choose what they want to read from the index. The chapter and section headings, while entertaining, are not good guides for this purpose.


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Praise for Paving Wall Street"This is a remarkable book that weaves the deep scientific roots of modern finance and modern financial institutions with humorous perspective and considerable wisdom. Few understand the pervasive and complex economic principles that govern our world of finance. Few are aware of the academic and scientific origins of financial practices and market instruments that are commonplace today. Ross Miller uses his experience and talents acquired as an experimental economist to help us understand a world that is contradictory, potentially dangerous, and paradoxical. He entertains us while doing it." --Charles R. Plott, Edward S. Harkness Professor of Economics and Political Science, California Institute of Technology"Decisions by millions of individuals produce the fierce tides and churning seas of Wall Street. Miller wields his microscope in the laboratory of experimental economics to provide a sprightly and insightful analysis of investor behavior." --Richard Zeckhauser, Frank P. Ramsey Professor of Political Economy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University"Dramatic new ways for buying and selling-spectrum auctions, e-commerce, derivatives-are the economics profession's contribution to the Information Revolution. This book explains how many of these innovations began with simple experiments at Caltech. The style is a refreshing combination-dramatic and fun to read, but also historically and scientifically accurate. So, I can send one to my Dad, a salesman, and another to my girlfriend, a patent attorney." --Colin Camerer, Rea and Lela Axline Professor of Business Economics, California Institute of Technology"Paving Wall Street is a first-rate insight into bubbles and the experimental research performed on the topic by leading academicians such as Vernon Smith." --David Dreman, Chairman, Dreman Value Management"Academic ideas have revolutionized how Wall Street operates. Entirely new markets have been created. This revolution continues today, accelerated by the rise of increasingly automated markets. Ross Miller has produced a book that makes the leading-edge financial and economic thinking that shapes these new markets accessible to practitioners and professionals. With no equations and a deft touch, this is an excellent guide to the future of greater Wall Street." --David J. Leinweber, PhD, Economics/Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology

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Stabilizing an Unstable Economy Review

Stabilizing an Unstable Economy
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This classic work of political economy, first published in 1986, has valuable lessons for us today. Minsky studies the recessions of 1975 and 1982, economic theory, institutions, particularly banks, and finally presents an agenda for reform.
Financial traumas have led to ever-worse recessions, in 1970, 1975, 1979-80, 1982, 1987, 2002 and the present. As he notes, "the normal functioning of our economy leads to financial trauma and crises, inflation, currency depreciations, unemployment, and poverty in the midst of what could be virtually universal affluence - in short, .. financially complex capitalism is inherently flawed." Yet he believes, "the collapse of aggregate demand and profits, such as occasionally occurred and often threatened to occur in pre-1933 small government capitalism, is never a clear and present danger in a Big Government capitalism such as has ruled since World War Two." Life is disproving this hope.
What causes these recessions? Minsky writes, "the Wall Streets of the world are important; they generate destabilizing forces. ... This instability is not due to external shocks or to the incompetence or ignorance of policy makers. Instability is due to the internal processes of our type of economy. The dynamics of a capitalist economy which has complex, sophisticated, and evolving financial structures leads to the development of conditions conducive to incoherence - to runaway inflations or deep depressions." Strangely, capitalism can't handle capital: "capitalism is flawed precisely because it cannot readily assimilate productive processes that use large-scale capital assets."
What is to be done? He warns, "Meaningful reforms cannot be put over by an advisory and administrative elite that is itself the architect of the existing situation." Then he stresses, "The emphasis on investment and `economic growth' rather than on employment as a policy objective is a mistake. A full-employment economy is bound to expand, whereas an economy that aims at accelerating growth through devices that induce capital-intensive private investment not only may not grow, but may be increasingly inequitable in its income distribution, inefficient in its choices of techniques and unstable in its overall performance." But, as Minsky acknowledges, capitalism cannot deliver full employment: "Capitalist market mechanisms cannot lead to a sustained, stable-price, full-employment equilibrium."
He proposes, "Public control, if not out-and-out public ownership, of large-scale capital-intensive production units is essential." He suggests nationalising the railroads and the nuclear power industry, as private enterprise runs both so poorly.

He also notes capitalism's other failures: "the market mechanism ... cannot and should not be relied upon for important, big matters such as the distribution of income, the maintenance of economic stability, the capital development of the economy, and the education and training of the young." It seems we can't rely on capitalism for anything.


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