If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks Review

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(More customer reviews)...because it's seductively written, and is liable to give readers unwarranted confidence in their ability to speculate/gamble (a distiction without a difference if there ever was one). The book is filled with entertaining fictionalized case-histories of people who both ignore and practice "macrowave investing." Problem is, of course, it's not as easy to play chess while everyone else is playing checkers as Navarro makes out. Case in point: throughout 2003, after March 12, he was calling market tops week after week, dissing the rally, eagerly adding to his short positions. Have no idea when he finally covered.
Investing is about a lot more than interpreting news alerts. When a major computer virus breaks out, it will occur to a lot of people to buy Symantec. It's awfully hard to get in first, even if you have time to sit in front of the computer all day, while glued to CNBC. And you'll be wrong half the time even if you do react instantaneously, because too many other things are contributing to a stock's valuation. From bitter experience, I've come to conclude that the best you can do is to respond to the over-reactions of Wall St. But then you have to know the companies you're buying, and there's zilch here on analyzing and evaluating businesses.
Though ostensibly written for all kinds of investors, the book is, of course, all about momentum trading--riding trends. For people who want to do this, _If It's Raining_ probably covers the basics as well as any book. He even throws in a glib and inaccurate account of the history of economic thought in the 20th century. The coverage of the business cycle and the introduction to the economic indicators is a lot better. Hence the 4 stars. But if this book fires your enthusiasm for "macrowave investing," do some paper trades for a few months first. Better still, take a look at the archives of Navarro's old columns from his website, if he's kept them.

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